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2023 Tourism Recovery Will Be Determined By Inoculation Rate
星野佳路 星野リゾート代表
新型コロナウイルス禍で観光旅行関連の消費はブレーキがかかった状態が続く。いつ、どのように回復するのか。必要な政策は何か。星野リゾート代表、星野佳路氏に聞いた。
――旅行・宿泊の需要をどう見ていますか。
「年4.8兆円あったインバウンドは蒸発したが、旅先を海外から国内に変えた日本人の需要3兆円が補っている。日々の予約は感染者が増えれば落ち、感染者が減れば持ち直す。足元は感染状況が悪化しても昨年ほど予約は落ちない。ワクチン登場が大きい。感染が落ち着けばGoToトラベルも再開するだろう」
「今後はワクチン接種のスピードにかかっている。ワクチン接種が進んだ米国や英国では行動制限解除を見越して旅行予約が回復している。日本でも接種が進めば上向くだろう。需要は2023年にはコロナ前の水準に戻るとみている」
――インバウンドは。
「東京オリンピック・パラリンピックをたとえ無観客でも安全に開催できれば意義は大きい。活躍する選手の姿、開催地の街の様子がテレビ中継で世界に伝わり、次は日本に旅行したいと思う人も増えるだろう」
「どの国も相手国の感染状況やワクチン接種の進捗を見ながら人の往来を元に戻していくプロセスが22年に本格化する。インバウンドは台湾、オーストラリア、中国、アメリカと徐々に戻ってくるのではないか」
――コロナ前に戻りますか。
「オンライン会議の定着で出張は減るかもしれないが、観光は成長軌道に戻る。マレーシア、インドネシア、中国などで増える中間層はコロナ禍が終息すれば海外観光旅行に動き出す」
「国内は変わる兆しがある。日本の観光産業の生産性が低いのは需要が休日に集中していたからだ。需要の波に対応するため雇用も75%が非正規だ。だがコロナ対策でテレワークやワーケーションが普及し、平日需要が増える可能性が出てきた。コロナ後も定着すれば地方の経済・雇用にとってプラスだ」
――必要な政策対応は。
「GoToトラベルの35%の補助率は下げるべきだ。コロナ終息で事業が終わる時に大幅値上げとなり反動減が大きくなる。補助対象はワクチン接種者としてワクチン接種を促進することも提案したい」
「何よりワクチン接種を早く進めて重症者を減らすことが重要。夏に経済が回復するには今後1カ月が勝負どころだ。先行するイスラエルや米欧各国は接種者の行動制限を緩めるインセンティブがある。政策を組み合わせて一気に接種率を上げるべきだ」
――星野リゾートはどう取り組みますか。
「需要が冷えた都市部でホテル運営を投資家から任される案件が増えている。供給過剰の市場で経営を立て直すのはバブル崩壊後に経験を積んでいる」
「ホテル運営企業として世界で認められるため北米には進出したい。日本の付加価値を提供できる温泉旅館をやる。80年代に米国でホテルを買収した日本企業が失敗したのは西洋ホテルをまねたからだと思う」
（聞き手は編集委員 吉田ありさ）
ほしの・よしはる 米コーネル大ホテル経営大学院を修了後、91年に家業の4代目代表に。60歳
Yoshiharu Hoshino, Representative of Hoshino Resorts
Sight seeing travel-related consumption will continue to slow down due to the new coronavirus disease. When and how will you recover? What is the required policy? We asked Mr. Yoshiharu Hoshino, the representative of Hoshino Resorts.
――How do you see the demand for travel and accommodation?
“Inbound, which was 4.8 trillion yen a year, is eliminated but the demand of 3 trillion yen for Japanese who have changed their travel destination from overseas to domestic is supplemented.
Daily reservations will drop if there is an increase in infection, and will recover if the number of infected people decreases. Even if the infection situation worsens, reservations will not drop as much as last year. Vaccines are coming out. If the situation in Japan recovers, we believe Go To Travel will resume. “
“From now on, it depends on the speed of vaccination. In the United States and the United Kingdom, where vaccination has progressed, travel reservations are recovering in anticipation of lifting restrictions on behavior. In Japan, if vaccination progresses, demand will increase in 2023 and is expected to return to pre-corona levels. “
–What about inbound?
“It would be significant if the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics could be held safely even without spectators. The appearance of active athletes and the state of the venue city will be broadcast to the world on TV, and more people will want to travel to Japan next time.”
――Would you like to go back to Corona?
“The establishment of online conferences may reduce business trips, but tourism will return to a growth trajectory. The growing middle class in Malaysia, Indonesia, China, etc. will start overseas tourism once the coronavirus situation is over.”
“There are signs that the country will change. The productivity of the Japanese tourism industry is low because demand was concentrated on holidays. 75% of employment is non-regular to respond to the wave of demand. With the spread of industry, there is a possibility that demand will increase on weekdays. If it becomes established after Corona, it will be positive for the local economy and employment. “
–What is the necessary policy response?
“GoTo Travel’s 35% subsidy rate should be lowered. When the business ends at the end of the corona, the price will rise significantly and the reactionary decline will be large. I would also like to propose that the subsidy promote mass vaccination”
“Above all, it is important to accelerate vaccination and reduce the number of seriously ill people. The next month will be the game for the economy to recover in the summer. Leading Israeli countries and the US and European countries have incentives to relax the restrictions on the behavior of vaccinated people. . We should combine policies to raise the inoculation rate at once. “
――How will Hoshino Resorts work?
“Investors are increasingly entrusted with hotel operations in urban areas where demand is low. Rebuilding operations in oversupplied markets has been important after the collapse of the bubble.”
“I want to expand into North America because it is recognized as a hotel management company in the world. I will do a hot spring inn that can provide added value to Japan. The Japanese company that acquired the hotel in the United States in the 1980s failed because it imitated a Western hotel. I think”
(Interviewer is Arisa Yoshida, editorial board member)
Hoshino Yoshiharu became the fourth representative of the family business in 1991 after graduating from Cornell University Hotel Management Graduate School. 60 years old